Volume 11, Issue 2 (Spring 2022)                   JOHE 2022, 11(2): 91-98 | Back to browse issues page

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Attanayake A. Vaccination Coverage for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka: With and Without Age Stratification on Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Simulation. JOHE. 2022; 11 (2) :91-98
URL: http://johe.rums.ac.ir/article-1-506-en.html
Senior Lecturer in Statistics, Dept. of Statistics & Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. , succ@kln.ac.lk
Abstract:   (227 Views)
Background: Vaccination against COVID-19 is as a key solution to interrupt its spread. This study aimed to describe the vaccination coverage required to stop the spread of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka using a mathematical modeling strategy.
Materials & Methods: This longitudinal study used age-stratified and unstratified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models. Data on the population's age distribution were acquired from the census report of the Census and Statistics Center of Sri Lanka, consisting of groups: below 30, between 30-59, and over 60. Models with differential equations forecasted the spread of COVID-19 with vaccination based on parameter estimates and numerical simulation, assuming fixed population, infection, and recovery rates.
Results: Simulations investigated how the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations varied according to the different vaccination coverages. According to the results, 75% vaccination coverage was required in the entire population of Sri Lanka to interrupt the transmission of COVID-19 completely. The age-stratified SIR model showed that over 90% of vaccination coverage in each age group (below 30, between 30-59, and over 60) was required to interrupt the transmission of COVID-19 in the country altogether.
Conclusions: The number of COVID-19 infections in each age group of Sri Lanka reduces with the increase in vaccination coverage. As 75% vaccination coverage is required in Sri Lanka to interrupt the transmission of the disease, precise vaccination coverage measurement is essential to assess the successfulness of a vaccine campaign and control COVID-19.
Article number: 1
Full-Text [PDF 522 kb]   (73 Downloads)    
Short Report: Original Article | Subject: Epidemiology
Received: 2021/12/3 | Accepted: 2022/07/19 | ePublished: 2022/08/22

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