Journal of Occupational

  Background: Millions of construction industry accidents occur in the world causing demages and injuries to workers and consequently economical losses every year. The aim of this study was to determine an estimator model for accidents among construction industry workers, in the years 2006 - 2011 for the first time, in Yazd city.

  Materials and Methods: In this descriptive study, the questionnaire included items asking about variables such as age, occupation, type of accident, injured organ and the outcome of the accident. Time Series Model was used in this study to estimate accidents among the Yazd construction workers up to 2011.

  Results: Fatality rate of workers who did not have insurance was more than those who had, which was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The greatest rate of accident was falling (48.58%) and the lowest was chocking (29%). The relationships of accident outcomes with type of occupation and also the injured part of body were statistically significant in the construction industry (p<0.001). After testing many models, time series model of quadratic form was the closest model to the trend of data.

Conclusions: This model estimation shows that if the situation is the same as now in 2011 the accident cases will be more than 300 per year in 2012 and later. So this model is recommended to make changes in the trend for preventing the accidents in the future.